Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.425890 0.487348 0.553997 0.631572 0.719313 0.815399 0.928529
2025-08-03 0.352700 0.437992 0.537660 0.662440 0.814180 0.992414 1.217328
2025-08-10 0.277470 0.371942 0.490274 0.648723 0.854618 1.112322 1.458466
2025-08-17 0.216054 0.311583 0.439410 0.621799 0.873995 1.208854 1.685324
2025-08-24 0.175925 0.271875 0.408501 0.615368 0.918379 1.343195 1.980420
2025-08-31 0.143985 0.237727 0.379347 0.606159 0.956861 1.474122 2.288931
2025-09-07 0.124275 0.218278 0.368337 0.621483 1.032871 1.668423 2.715108
2025-09-14 0.101201 0.188978 0.336916 0.599520 1.047461 1.771238 3.015410
2025-09-21 0.085159 0.168520 0.316398 0.591735 1.083095 1.910747 3.390870
2025-09-28 0.071567 0.149800 0.295602 0.579786 1.109244 2.036939 3.759076
2025-10-05 0.064324 0.141744 0.292671 0.599326 1.193289 2.271546 4.341189
2025-10-12 0.056190 0.130294 0.281319 0.600955 1.244043 2.452442 4.848263
2025-10-19 0.049997 0.122059 0.275638 0.614248 1.321816 2.697674 5.514328
2025-10-26 0.044870 0.115175 0.271647 0.630527 1.408243 2.970833 6.268966
2025-11-02 0.037555 0.101640 0.250926 0.607775 1.410983 3.080562 6.717577
2025-11-09 0.030883 0.088163 0.227842 0.575797 1.389066 3.137339 7.066213
2025-11-16 0.026547 0.079685 0.214933 0.565063 1.412534 3.291782 7.637794
2025-11-23 0.022820 0.071972 0.202451 0.553182 1.431503 3.438688 8.210981
2025-11-30 0.020691 0.068283 0.199566 0.564734 1.507819 3.722319 9.120329
2025-12-07 0.017497 0.060655 0.184758 0.542913 1.498980 3.810093 9.595235
2025-12-14 0.015267 0.055449 0.175604 0.534566 1.522853 3.977304 10.274616
2025-12-21 0.013243 0.050384 0.165852 0.522815 1.535989 4.119944 10.911590
2025-12-28 0.012320 0.048812 0.166164 0.539869 1.628818 4.470209 12.094942